They always say you know when you know right? Well if you've been paying close attention to my blogs of late previewing Cheltenham we both know that there's a strong chance I could have it all wrong!
The truth is though, I do put a lot of time into studying these races and break them down the best I can and from it you can make your own opinions as to who you think will win that race.
So far we've ran a theme of previewing the chases, and I'm going to keep that going in this one with the Queen Mother Champion Chase being the focus.
A lot of people quite rightly think that this race is a done deal now after the Clarence House, but Energumene isn't just going to go away you know, he's entitled to a rematch, just like a boxer, and I'm sure he'll be more than ready to spar with his old foe in different scenery.
It's going to be Shishkin vs Energumene part 2, and there's plenty of questions to be asked about this much anticipated sequel.
Will the Willie Mullins empire strike back? Or is the Nicky Henderson terminator too much of a machine to beat?
I'll try and include a few other names in this as well, Greaneteen, Nube Negra and Chacun Pour Soi aren't going to be push overs of course, and we do need to find some each way shouts so, without further ado let's get in it...
We know where we've got to start with this one, and that's with the simply magnificent Shishkin.
His win in the Clarence House showed he can dig deep and battle hard like a good one, and I could sit here all night and talk about how talented he is but the truth is I can't do it justice.
He's the hot favourite for this race for Nicky Henderson and Nico De Boinville, and rightly so, at the minute, I don't see him getting beat, even though he could do without hitting that flat spot again mind.
Energumene gave his all for Paul Townend that day at Ascot, and on the whole, jumped better than his rival, with Shishkin pitching badly after a fence down the back.
I can't say a bad word about him, Willie Mullins will have him ready for round two and I do believe he can beat Shishkin, but he'll need different tactics.
The field here is bigger, and even though he likes to lead, I think if he can get a lead into the race and find some cover, he might be able to conserve some energy for a battle up the hill with Shishkin and he might have more in the tank if carrying out them tactics.
Mullins knows far more than me though, and he'll be relishing this clash, because who doesn't love it when racing gets all tactical?
Onto the other horses though, and last year's favourite Chacun Pour Soi also looks like he'll turn up again here.
He didn't jump with any fluency at Sandown in the Tingle Creek but you could tell that wasn't the horse we know he is really, and a better indication to see if he's still the force of old would be to watch him run on the 6th February at Leopardstown in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase.
I will say also he's only actually ran at Cheltenham once as well, coming 3rd in last year's running of the Queen Mother, where he travelled very strongly and ultimately didn't find as much under pressure as Paul Townend thought he would.
The year before that, he missed the race through injury, and even though Willie Mullins will have him ready for the day, like he does with all his horses, we all know this race is going to be focused on the rematch between Shishkin and Energumene as mentioned earlier on.
Greaneteen won that race at Sandown that Chacun Pour Soi flopped in, and finished behind him in the 2021 running of this race.
A clear improver, with a likeable attitude, he was no match for Shishkin last time out at Kempton but no horse has been, and he's an obvious each way shout.
Nube Negra also put up a no show in the Tingle Creek, with jockey Harry Skelton reporting he was never travelling.
He was mightily unlucky in this race last year, and his best efforts come when he's fresh so a break since December will do him the world of good.
Another each way shout to join Greaneteen, they might not be much between them both and Chacun Pour Soi at the end of the race because they all seem to be of equal abilities if producing something near their best.
Allmankind and First Flow are two horses I'd love to see run in the race but there's no need for any closing comments on this one really, it's quite simple, team Shishkin or team Energumene?
Top pick: Shishkin.
Dangerous: Energumene.
Run for your money - Nube Negra, Greaneteen, Chacun Pour Soi.
Horses I'd love to see run in the race - First Flow, Allmankind.
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