Last week, if you read the blog of course, you would know that I previewed the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival and said I would be doing another race in the near future once the entries were out.
Well we now have available the Arkle Novices' Chase, if you remember correctly a certain Shishkin won last year, but this year the Irish have a real strong hand in the field.
Willie Mullins has Ferny Hollow and Blue Lord entered, who both top the market, which would lead Paul Townend with a selection headache of course, with Daryl Jacob still 50/50 yet as to whether he'll make Cheltenham.
Jacob you would think should ride Blue Lord because he is the retained jockey for the owners, even though Townend has ridden him most recently, and that would then free Townend up to ride the 11/10 favourite Ferny Hollow, who I'm sure Townend will go for anyways with his four from four record being put on the line.
I think it was massively unfortunate Ferny Hollow didn't make it to Cheltenham last year and was only seen once over hurdles.
However, it was clear that Mullins always saw him as more of a chaser, and he's already made his mark as one, with a Grade 1 win already added to his honours to go alongside that Cheltenham Champion bumper back in 2020 where he beat his stablemate Appreciate It.
His first run over fences showed even the best horses need that experience sometimes, with some less than convincing jumps coming on the way round, before finally getting the message and battling on well to win by four lengths from Coeur Sublime.
These two met again on Boxing Day in the Grade 1, and despite jumping right on occasions, he once again dug deep and battled hard to run out a length and a half winner over Riviere D'etel, a horse who had previously won a Grade 2 and Grade 3 over fences.
Riviere D'etel holds an entry in the race himself and is available at 10/1 which doesn't look that bad for a horse who's got the closest to Ferny Hollow over his two chase starts so far.
The interesting bit of Ferny Hollow's 2nd win though is that he also beat Coeur Sublime by 15 lengths this time, to show he had improved, and he could really end up being a solid option already for this race, and that's without even looking at any of his rivals in detail.
Blue Lord has jumped well over the larger obstacles so far, albeit in slighter lower class than Ferny Hollow.
The signs are there that he is useful though, he settles well and sometimes it might not be about winning graded races beforehand that makes you win the big one on the day, it comes down to just how good the horse really is, and at 4/1, I couldn't come up with a negative form him either.
So far this has preview has been all about the Irish again, similar to the Gold Cup preview.
But it's time to switch it up now and see what the trainers over here have to offer.
Alan King has the Henry VIII winner Edwardstone entered, and his latest win at Kempton confirmed the promise that he has shown over fences.
A debut win at Warwick where he travelled powerfully into the race and popped away nicely in the hands of Tom Cannon saw him breeze past Stepney Causeway in the home straight to land the spoils and open his account.
He seemed as though he was going to be up against it at Sandown with favourite Third Time Lucki, we'll get on to his chances in this race later, being strong in the betting.
However, Skelton's horse went off what seemed to be too fast a pace, even though I just think his tactics never suited the track and he'll be far better off back around Cheltenham again, and Edwardstone cruised clear once more to beat War Lord by 16 lengths.
At the minute he's the best chance the British have off that win at Sandown, and even though there's the obvious feel he'll have to step forward again to beat Ferny Hollow, being available at 9/2 is certainly suggesting he has a fair shout to do just that.
Third Time Lucki made quite the impression on his opening two starts over fences, winning back to back at Cheltenham, and looking the real deal.
He did falter at Sandown on his third attempt, but I think there's plenty of valid excuses for that run, because on a whole he still jumped well until he got tired, which could obviously be because of the gallop he went, or he just simply didn't handle the track.
This race will ultimately prove that though, and at 16/1 you can't rule him out for running into place money at least, as he tries to turn the form around with Edwardstone.
Another one to mention quickly is Brave Seasca for the Venetia Williams stable who has won his last three on the bounce.
On paper he has about 20lbs to find on Ferny Hollow, but he's been progressing nicely through the winter and will go into Cheltenham if he turns up, in good form, 16/1 could again be each way value.
My final mention goes back to the Irish, and Willie Mullins again, who also has Saint Sam down for an entry.
Saint Sam had been off the track for a while, when he made a winning reappearance over fences earlier on this month, but he did it in effortless fashion, and it could mean Mr. Mullins could have a 1-2-3 in this race quite easily.
To summarise this race all up then, I think we all know Ferny Hollow is the one to beat in this contest, and he could be a hard one to beat indeed.
Blue Lord has looked more natural compared to Ferny Hollow, but hasn't got the same achievements to his name yet, but is still dangerous nonetheless.
Edwardstone does have the achievements to match Ferny Hollow though, and that makes him potentially more of a threat, if he holds up that form from Sandown.
He knows fine well that Third Time Lucki will be a lot closer to him this time and could quite easily reverse the form, but I still believe that Edwardstone has proved he might have that edge over him and will prove it once again here.
Whether he has enough class to beat a horse like Ferny Hollow is yet to be determined until the day, but if he jumps more fluently than Ferny Hollow he could find himself putting pressure on the hot favourite and make those favourite backers sweat.
Saint Sam and Brave Seasca are two horses which hold each way claims with both needing big steps forward again, and Third Time Lucki is 2 from 2 around Cheltenham saw holds strong claims with him taking a more settled and conservative approach this time around.
I'd love to see the trailblazing For Pleasure run here and turn up, because who doesn't love him let's be honest.
But I think they will all have to put Ferny Hollow's jumping under some serious pressure around here if they want to beat him.
That's all for this preview, make sure you check out the Gold Cup one if you haven't already, but I'm off now to prepare for the Winter Million at Lingfield and the Clarence House which all prove to be crackers over the weekend.
Solid chance - Ferny Hollow.
Dangerous - Blue Lord, Edwardstone.
Run for your money - Third Time Lucki, Saint Sam, Brave Seasca.
Horse I'd love to see run in the race - For Pleasure.
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